Mathhammer - boo hiss

Ah the reviled mathhammer hated by some and misused by many. The main point which many of the critics of mathhammer raise again and again is “if mathhammer is so good why is it then used by so many bunnies and so few of the top generals?”

Well two reasons, for starters mathhammer is not a path to tactical genius, it is simply providing more information to make a more informed choice. It won’t stop you making bone head moves and it doesn’t construct a diagram of how the game is going to play out under 6 different scenarios. Some of the more experienced players that don’t use mathhammer have actually just seen the scenarios enough times to know the probable out come anyway through trial and error.

The other reason is people misinterpret the information which leads them to make worse decisions. My personal favourite is “I should on average win that combat”, this is then closely followed by recognition that you only on average are winning by 1 or 2, (meaning there is still very strong chance you lose or that your opponent holds), that you have a small number of dice (meaning the result is more variable) and that it is a general on dragon (worth many points) against non descript vanilla infantry (worth very few points). So essentially our mathhammer guru has pitting his 700 points against 100 with around an even money chance of breaking them?

There are four things I always consider when using mathhammer [please note the % chance of victory is HIGHLY variable depending on number of dice and kills required]

How much do I win by on “average?”
If it is a small amount (+1/2 CR) then really you aren’t “that” favoured to win the combat and even if you do whoopee they are testing at 1 or 2 down.

Will I break them / How many turns am I likely to be in combat
If I think I’m winning 70% of the time but I’m fighting a stubborn or unbreakable unit this means that 51% of the time I will lose one of the two turns and are therefore at greater risk of losing points than my opponent

How dice reliant is my CR?
Two things come out this one is that the only combat res you can guarantee is static combat res the rest is in the lap of dice gods. The second is that you are more likely to get an “average” roll with more dice. For example how often have you got less than 3 hits with your saurus old blood? Or rolled 2 or 3 ones on 3 hits? These outcomes are not bad luck they are reasonable probabilities that you should plan for.

How many points am I putting at risk and how many do I have to gain?
This is the big one. Add up how many points you’re putting at risk versus how many you stand to gain, yes this includes standards, then times that by your estimated probability of winning and if the amount doesn’t exceed the points you’re putting at risk then you’re in trouble.

If you have a 400 point unit attacking a 100 point unit you had better have either an 80%+ chance of coming up with the goods or the move better be setting up something else that will offset the difference. The other outcome of looking at this is knowing when to take a chance and throw that piddly little 75 point unit into 1/3 chance against the 300 point unit

Now due to the sheer amount of dice involved in a game the probability for victory for each situation is pretty variable meaning that the guestimates you make based on your CR differential is imperfect information [side note: I once built a chart using the “small roller” but alas that was on a work computer at a former employer and took me a while to put it together – much productivity lost]. Given this the information should still be used as a rough guide only which is the whole point anyway.